My official predictions for the 91st annual Academy Awards.

Chalk it up to my usual apathy, but I just don't see a lot of excitement coming from the build up to this Sunday's annual Oscar ceremony. I should be more eager, given certain categories will be up in the air, with multiple viable contenders having a shot at the win. The thing is, it's not the usual race that leaves me apathetic. It's that I have no intention of watching the ceremony at all.

In an attempt to give their ratings a boost, AMPAS, under the new leadership of John Bailey, has continually backpedaled on one terrible decision after another. Starting with plans for a Best Popular Film category, a thinly veiled attempt to pander to the masses with films the snobbish Academy deem unworthy of legitimate recognition, such as Black Panther. Then there was the debacle with former host Kevin Hart's homophobic tweet resurfacing, and Hart, rather than show any maturity or regret for it, actively doubled down on defending his words. Then there was the decision to cut most of the Original Song nominees, last year's acting winners not being invited to present, and four technical categories that were going to be presented during commercial breaks. Disgraceful!

Say what you will about Cheryl Boone Isaacs, Dick Poop and all, but at least she had a heart for her job. John Bailey has no soul, let alone a heart. Everything about this year's program feels like money-grubbing, calculated, pandering cynicism incarnate. Apparently we have no time to let deserving people take to the stage and give a heartfelt speech, but we do have time for useless crap like Adam Lambert and Queen opening the show. It's some of the most embarrassing showmanship I've seen since Adam Shankman's disastrous 2010 hack job, and AMPAS would do well to get their act together in time for next year's telecast, starting with ousting its president and finding someone who actually knows what they're doing.

Anyway, now that I'm done ranting, let's predict who's going to win.






Best Live Action Short: Skin
Best Documentary Short: Black Sheep
Best Animated Short: Weekends
Another year, another chance for the shorts to kill a potential perfect run. While I haven't seen most of the nominees, their subject matter does give me some useful info to predict on. Live-Action Short feels like a coin toss between Skin and Fauve to me, but I think the subject matter of Skin will allow it to prevail. Subject matter could also pave the way for Black Sheep in Documentary Short, though I wouldn't be surprised at an upset by Period. End of Sentence. Animated Short feels easier to me, though. Weekends sounds like the most beautifully experimental entry in the lineup, but watch out for One Small Step and Bao.


Best Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War
Given what a terrific year Marvel has had, how larger than life the effects work in the movie is, and given the added buzz of Best Picture nominee and fellow MCU flick Black Panther, I see this easily going to mad titan Thanos. Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.


Best Sound Editing: First Man
I don't know. This category could literally go to any nominee not named A Quiet Place (which is ironically the most deserving), but I think the awesome sound work for Damien Chazelle's film could pull some sway here. But I won't be surprised if Bohemian Rhapsody or Roma come out on top.


Best Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
For reasons I don't understand, Rhapsody is becoming one of the runaway hits of the year. And having recently won the CAS award, that gives it an added edge over fellow Picture nominee A Star is Born. As long as it doesn't win Best Picture.


Best Original Song: "Shallow" - A Star is Born
"I'M OFF THE DEEP END, WATCH AS I DIVE IN!"


Best Original Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
My gut was telling me Black Panther, but my brain was telling me If Beale Street Could Talk. Last year, listening to my gut resulted in getting a prediction wrong. Not making that mistake again.


Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Vice
When in doubt, pick the Best Picture nominee. And let's be clear, this is easily the most deserving nominee.


Best Costume Design: Black Panther
This feels like an incredibly tight race between Black Panther and The Favourite, both of which took home respective honors at the CDG awards, and both of which have been lauded for their wardrobe. By all traditional logic, this would look to be in The Favourite's favor, given it looks like the usual extravagant winner this category has become known for. On the other hand, the recent win for Mad Max: Fury Road proved that genre films with well designed costumes can still triumph here. Factor in the added benefit of Panther's significance, and that Ruth Myers would become the first African-American to ever win in this category, it feels like the stars are aligned for it.


Best Production Design: Black Panther
Both Panther and Favourite were easy victors at the Production Designer Guilds, but the epic scale and beauty of Wakanda makes me believe it will be the one to triumph. Again, going back to the Mad Max and cultural angle.


Best Film Editing: BlacKkKlansman
This is tricky, because the Oscars so often conflate "Most" Editing with "Best." Should they do so again, I could see Vice being the beneficiary. Or maybe Bohemian Rhapsody in an inexplicable sweep. But Klansman just feels like the most obvious choice to me, especially with how intrinsic the editing is to the movie's overall tone and vibe. Plus, it's just a much less divisive movie.


Best Cinematography: Roma
Slowly panning to the next category.


Best Documentary Feature: RBG
2018 was the year of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, with the Felicity Jones led On the Basis of Sex, and this documentary of her life in law and the Supreme Court. While I will admit Free Solo feels like more of a winner, there's a rich sentimentality and sincerity to this film, in a turnaround from the usually dry presentation of docs, that I feel like voters will instantly gravitate to. But shame on the Academy for snubbing Won't You Be My Neighbor! FOR SHAME!


Best Foreign Language Film: Roma
The only way this doesn't happen is if voters suddenly feel like giving Cold War a pity win.


Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
This year's animated lineup includes two sequels, a little seen anime film, and Wes Anderson in a return to stop-motion. But standing above all of them is Into the Spider-Verse, which has all the critical acclaim, audience love, industry love, and awards traction to thwip straight to the stage.


Best Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
This year's race was really thrown into question after the recent WGA's, where Can You Ever Forgive Me? triumphed over most of the other, also Oscar nominated films. I'd be thrilled to see it happen, but BlacKkKlansman just feels like a safer bet, especially given it's the best chance the voters have to finally award Spike Lee an Oscar.


Best Original Screenplay: The Favourite
Another interesting category following the WGA's, in which three of our nominees lost out to the un-nominated Eighth Grade. In the splintered aftermath, that may be a good sign for The Favourite, especially given how driven the movie is by its screenplay, and its incredibly witty way with words. Maybe it's bias, because I really want to see my favorite (heh) movie of the year win something, but I'm calling this one.


Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
By all accounts, the smart money is still on Regina King, who early in the season claimed victories at both the Golden Globes and the Critic's Choice awards, making her way up to an Oscar nomination. But that doesn't mean she's a lock, given her snubs at both the SAG's and the BAFTA's, in what looks to be a Sylvester Stallone 2.0. In her absence, BAFTA winner Rachel Weisz has slowly been building her own steam, similar to Mark Rylance who triumphed over Stallone. On the other hand, Rylance wasn't competing against anyone from his own film, as Weisz is with Emma Stone, and vote splitting so often leaves both parties without a victory. Someone like bridesmaid-but-never-bride Amy Adams could also benefit, given her consistent presence and overdue status. But I'm going out on a limb for "Mr. Freeman" here. 'Twould be a cruel jape if she loses.


Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali - Green Book
While Ali is not a supporting performance, he's easily been the runaway victor this whole season, something that not even Green Book's piling controversies can take the steam out of.


Best Lead Actress: Glenn Close - The Wife
Glenn Close is a legend, but it wasn't until her Globes victory that there was any reason to think she'd go all the way to the Oscars. She didn't have the steamroller season that Julianne Moore did, but now that she does, she's practically unstoppable. Even if she is being rewarded for a less than great performance.


Best Lead Actor: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
"HE WILL, HE WILL ROCK YOU!" Unless they really are that desperate to hand Bradley Cooper something.


Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Thank u, next.


Best Motion Picture of the Year: Roma

This year's Best Picture race has been an eventful one, to say the least. Through the whole season, we've seen the usual fluctuation of heavyweight contenders change and shift as time went on, and all of them fall under the usual biases and arising controversies.

Green Book won the PGA's top honor, but has been embroiled in various scandals and controversies slowly eating away at it. Black Panther triumphed with Best Ensemble at the SAG's, but without a directing nomination (as well as the inherent bias of being a superhero flick), it's chances are limited. Bohemian Rhapsody has been a surprise smash for audiences (if not for critics), even earning the Golden Globe for Best Drama, but the association of credited director Bryan Singer may leave voters feeling icky for selecting it. The Favourite is well loved but not an obvious winner, Vice has been incredibly polarizing, and A Star is Born has lost most of its momentum.

At this point, I see the race going either to Roma or BlacKkKlansman, as those are the most consistent and easily agreeable of the nominees, and even Roma feels like a movie that shouldn't come as close as it is. Being exclusive to streaming giant Netflix, and given little theatrical attention, that was one odd firmly against it, especially given the unfavorable opinions lobbed against Netflix by prolific filmmakers, like Steven Spielberg arguing they're more in line with television movies. Were it any other film and any other year, that would likely clear the way for an easy Klansman win.

But that's the reality we live in. We may love the theater, but the Netflix model is still the way of the future, for better or worse. To paraphrase Alfonso Cuaron, what distributor would give a black-and-white, Spanish-language, independent film with no major stars a mainstream theatrical run?

But even pushing that aside, this isn't any other year or film. Regardless of your feelings on Netflix, there's no denying that Roma is an incredibly affecting and passionate colossus. It's the sort of film that nobody hates, that hasn't fallen victim to overexposure or the eventual backlash of most Oscar frontrunners, or had any disqualifying controversies thrown its way. As lengthy as it is, it's an easy film to fall in love with, which is why it's managed to retain such strong staying power. Not only that, but it has the added benefit of being a timely capsule piece, a beautiful love letter to Mexico and its people, which is especially poignant given the ongoing politics surrounding the country, including Donald Trump's mission to build an ill-conceived border wall.

Roma has everything in its favor; timeliness, industry love, widespread appeal in the Academy (including overperforming on nomination morning), and is just a good story well told. For that and more, I feel confident in pegging it as this year's Best Picture winner.


So ends my yearly predictions list. Since I won't be watching the show, I'll see Monday how many guesses I got right, and hope I don't hit another record low. Other than that, enjoy the show!