My official predictions for the 90th annual Academy Awards.

"I'm so glad we've had this time together," but now the pay-off to a long Oscar season concludes this Sunday with the upcoming Academy Awards telecast, and man am I excited! I know I made it clear last year that the Academy Awards are nothing to get too enraged or invested over, but there's always something about that friendly sense of competition between viewers with difference in personal preferences, and the joy to correctly guess your most long shot predictions on your ballot.

But boy, does the telecast itself have a lot to live up to. Last year's ceremony was the best I'd seen in quite a long time, thanks to the charisma and bite of host Jimmy Kimmel, who'll be trying to recapture that lightning in a bottle. He certainly has the chance, what with the wealth of burn material handed to him on a silver platter (expect some scathing jabs at Trump and Weinstein). But how on earth they'll address and poke fun at last year's bewildering Best Picture slip-up? We'll have to wait and see.

But putting aside the telecast, here I am once more to list out my predictions in all 24 competitive categories. Last year saw me hit a personal low of 14. I thought that by playing it safe, I'd be able to get a decent score, so imagine my surprise at shocker wins like Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, and of course Moonlight's big upset. This year, I've decided I want to be more risky with a lot of my picks, so we'll see if that bolsters my tally. Here are the selections!





Best Live-Action Short: DeKalb Elementary
Best Documentary Short: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball
The Short categories are always a great big crapshoot, since few in the mainstream ever actually get to see all the nominees, but it's always fun to try to make some elaborate guesses on the matter. In the wake of the tragic school shooting in Parkland, Florida, the material of DeKalb Elementary could be one to spark a lot of conversation in Live-Action, and perhaps even translate into a win for it. I could see Documentary going a number of different ways, but I think the inspirational subject matter of Heaven... could snag it, though Heroin(e) could easily win as well. I've only seen two Animated contenders, one being Lou which could win on Pixar's name, but the stylized flair and famed pedigree of Dear Basketball (which includes animation extraordinaire Glen Keane, Maestro John Williams, and Oscar-nominee Kobe Bryant) makes that the easy victor here.


Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes
I think by pure virtue of the Apes trilogy's effects quality AND quantity throughout the years, this movie has it in the bag, (and is probably the closest we'll ever get to seeing Andy Serkis win an Oscar). Maybe Blade Runner or Star Wars could snag it, but with Blade Runner's seeming indifference, and voters reportedly not seeing much new to Star Wars, I doubt they upset.


Best Sound Editing/Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
For the first time ever, I believe, we now have a complete correlation between the nominees of both Sound categories. It almost makes you wonder why they didn't combine it into one collective category, but be that as it may, the competition in both fields looks very stiff. Still, the track record for War films in these categories seems to point towards Dunkirk, especially given just how vital the shock of the sound was to the film's claustrophobic terror. I do have some nagging suspicions that either Baby Driver or The Shape of Water could take one or both of the awards, but I'm sticking with the war film here.


Best Original Song: "This is Me" - The Greatest Showman
I wanted to side with "Remember Me", but that song hasn't taken off in the same way as "Let it Go" did several years ago, even though it feels like the most traditional winner here. Maybe "Mighty River" wins to give Mary J. Blige some due, or maybe a surprise win for Sufjan Stevens (who should be nominated for "Visions of Gideon"). But "This is Me", in spite of The Greatest Showman's underwhelming bow, has the buzz and standout notice (and a Golden Globe) it takes to go all the way here.


Best Original Score: Phantom Thread
Up until now, I was firmly in the camp of Desplat winning here, and that's definitely still the safe bet, but with Jonny Greenwood's campaign peaking at the right times (including live orchestras playing to the film in select venues), Phantom Thread just seems to be destined to take it in the end.


Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Like, what else is there?


Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Totally obvious, but does that make it any less deserving?


Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
All five nominees in this category are exceptional competitors, and any one of them winning would be deserved. But The Shape of Water certainly has the most stylized and fantastical of the looks (no surprise given del Toro's obsessive eye for detail), so that looks like the easy winner.


Best Film Editing: Baby Driver
No guts, no glory! Dunkirk feels like the more obvious outcome, but the amount of craft, skill, precision, and the tightly wound tension and pure stylistic flair of Baby Driver and its many car chases just feel too good to ignore. It also brings to mind the surprise win of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, or even The Bourne Ultimatum, both of which managed to triumph over more obvious Best Picture heavyweights. Sometimes, great skill is all you need.


Best Cinematography: The Shape of Water
I've given up any and all hope for the Academy to give Roger Deakins his Oscar. 2049 is the finest achievement of his career, and yet everything seems to indicate he'll *still* end up the bridesmaid. The Shape of Water, by virtue of del Toro, is a flashy and beautiful film, with occasionally gruesome but hypnotic visual storytelling that makes it a clear standout. There's a case for either Dunkirk or Mudbound to come out on top as well, but not enough to make me change predictions.


Best Documentary Feature: Icarus
If I were to be totally honest, Faces Places feels like the safer, more assured winner of this category, garnering an impressive level of acclaim and notoriety, as well as the inspirational subject matter. And yet, everything just feels right about Icarus. Disregarding the Netflix bias (which will be shattered sooner or later), the film has been received with highly positive notices, and following the recent Winter Olympic Games, specifically for Russia's ban following charges of organized doping, it also has the timeliness that voters love to recognize in this category. But who knows? Maybe it will be Faces Places? I'll be keeping an eye on this one.


Best Foreign Language Film: The Square
While I think A Fantastic Woman feels like a more obvious winner, The Square's strong acclaim and highly artful experimental style looks to be a heavyweight here, possibly leading to its eventual victory in the category.


Best Animated Feature: Coco
Pixar's Coco was one of the finest films to come out last year, and such quality eventually translated to richly deserved guilds, critics, and industry awards left and right, soon to complete and top off its campaign with their ninth Animated Feature Oscar. Can you really get mad at that?


Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Congrats to The Disaster Artist, Logan, and Molly's Game for securing their only nominations here, as well as to Mudbound and Dee Rees, but the clear victor here has to be Call Me By Your Name for its layered, sensitive, passionate love story. It's as good a consolation prize as any.


Best Original Screenplay: Get Out
It's amazing to me that Get Out, a full year later, still remains such a strong presence in the Oscar conversation. It won't win Best Picture, given its competition is too stiff, but perhaps this is where it can pull off a surprise win. While Three Billboards has been the one to beat for a while, and is a stronger Best Picture bet, Get Out's still resonant thematic ideas, coupled with its recent victory at the WGA's, and Three Billboards possibly losing steam as it gets closer to Oscar night, makes me feel that enough support could sway into Jordan Peele's favor. Even del Toro could be a threat here.


Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
This one won't even be close, and I am infuriated by it. Janney's flash without substance, one-dimensional cartoon caricature of a performance earns my vote as the most overrated performance of the year, and I have no absolutely no idea what anyone is seeing in it. It really does feel to me like Janney's success this circuit has a lot to do with her (admittedly deserved) status as a prominent industry staple. She's proven time and time again what a great character actress she is, and all it took was for her to get the right role to pull a JK Simmons, and for all the major awards to come her way. Talented as Janney is, unlike the aforementioned Simmons, this movie does not use her to the best of her abilities. But it sadly doesn't matter what I think, and I'll just have to live in my bitterness as she coasts to an easy victory over the infinitely superior Laurie Metcalf.


Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Also obvious, but unlike Janney, McDonagh's film gives Sam Rockwell an actual character, and the result is one of the best performances of the year. And it couldn't have happened to a more deserving - and criminally underappreciated guy.


Best Lead Actress: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I wish it would go to Saoirse Ronan, as she deserves it by a country mile, but it is hard to root against Frances McDormand's ferocious (and industry storming) central performance.


Best Lead Actor: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Like, who else is there?


Best Director: Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
The DGA, the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, the quintessential technical juggernaut, the narrative and the long, healthy career of an insightful and singular filmmaking force. No one could be more deserving.


Best Lead Actress: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

This is truly a standout competitor in its field. Since its debut back in November, with word of mouth and acclaim spreading like wildfire, everything seemed to be tossed in Three Billboards' favor. Based purely on the talent that it possessed, becoming the year's most standout acting showcase, it's not hard to see why so many gravitated to the blistering, darkly comical nature of the film. And it's a film that already has some serious pedigree going for it, having snagged the SAG Ensemble award, the Golden Globe for Best Picture, and garnering an impressive three acting nominations, including an easy two wins for McDormand and Rockwell. Certainly Martin McDonagh deserves serious kudos for bringing it all together so well, as we...


Guys! I'm sorry, there's a mistake! Shape of Water, you guys will win Best Picture.

This is not a joke! Shape of Water will win Best Picture.


Best Motion Picture of the Year: The Shape of Water

Yes, while Three Billboards did have the acclaim, the support, and the political narrative to back itself up (including distasteful copycats in the wake of the Parkland shooting), it wasn't without its detractors. The film has left a bad taste in the mouths of viewers for its brutal and sometimes unpleasant subject matter, but above all, anyone who follows the Oscars can tell you that being the early frontrunner is seldom a good thing. Three Billboards may have had a head start, but then it also had to face off with the likes of Lady Bird which released shortly after, Get Out which reemerged into the discussion, and the forces of Nolan and Anderson with Dunkirk and Phantom Thread, and the film certainly took a tumble thanks to McDonagh's shocking snub in Directing.

The Shape of Water, on the other hand, has everything going for it. The film slowly rolled out in limited release in early December, building word of mouth as it kept expanding, ensuring that it would remain a heavyweight in the conversation without giving anyone fatigue. The film also has great political resonance, inspired by still ongoing xenophobia, earned victories from both the PGA and the DGA, and just like Three Billboards, also managed an impressive three acting nominations. Not only that, but with the aforementioned Guillermo del Toro's long road to the Oscar stage, having come close in 2007 for Pan's Labyrinth, seeing this film eventually come out on top would be a great culmination of his storied career.

While fantasy may not tend to do well within this category, and the sometimes gruesome imagery may be a bit much for voters, The Shape of Water still feels like the most easily accessible choice. It's the sort of film that nobody hates, that appeals to any wide range of tastes and demographics. It only makes sense that it should have everything in its favor, and I can see no way it won't be crowned our 2017 Best Picture winner.


And those are my choices, so come Sunday night we'll see if my logic holds any water (I'm sorry). Enjoy the telecast!